China's New Toy Hurts NQ!

Macro Gossip
China’s new AI dropped the NASDAQ.

I don’t think we can get any clearer than that headline, but wow what a weak it has been. The past few years, the most spoken word in business has been “AI”. “Invest here, do this, train this.”

One thing is for sure, OpenAI has made it incredibly obvious that no other businesses could build what they have built, and then in came DeepSeek, which did it for only a fraction of the budget.

The release of this AI really shot tech stocks, the NQ at one point was down -5.17% on the day.

So, what do you think? Is the AI market about to be revealed? Grab your pop corn and let’s find out.

Quick & Dirty Trade
Will the USD/CHF Trend Resume?

The price of USD/CHF is in a strong upward trend on the weekly time frame which could set to resume under the right conditions.

From a fundamental picture:

• Fed holding rates, with potential to hold rates at higher levels as long as inflation pressures remain. 

• SNB (Swiss National Bank) is cutting interest rates aggressively to bring demand. 

• Seasonally between the 1st Feb and 8th March the price of USDCHF can move higher with a 66.67% win rate in a post election year.

Macro Insight, Micro Impact
Power Struggles & Political Drama

More political turmoil hits the market and this time it’s in Norway. Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store’s coalition just collapsed over EU energy rules. The coalition Eurosceptic Centre Party stated that they were unwilling to “give away more power to the EU”.

Norway, one of Europe’s richest energy producers, is playing hard to get with the EU, refusing to share too much of its hydropower with its neighbors. The EU is not amused, calling Norway “selfish” for keeping electricity while profiting from gas sales.

However, some in Norway feel that President Trump returning to office could bring tariffs on Europe and a renewed interest in Greenland, which could have ripple effects for Norway’s Arctic territories. Norway may need to rebuild its relationship with the EU…

Macro Hack of the Week: Interest Rate Differentials

Most traders obsess over central bank rate hikes or cuts with good reason, but there’s more to it. It’s important to look for opposing central bank views, as this can create opportunities for currency traders. One way to see this is through interest rate differentials, not just the rates themselves.

Currencies don’t move just because the Fed, ECB, or BoJ hikes or cuts rates. What really matters is how one country’s rates compare to another’s. This is why the carry trade exists, investors borrow in low-yield currencies (like the yen) and park their money in higher-yielding ones (like the USD).

If a central bank signals a pause while others keep cutting (like this example of US Federal Reserve and Swiss National Bank), its currency could strengthen.