Your Grandma is asking about crypto again...

Macro Gossip
Crypto's Wild Ride

The crypto market is on fire, with Bitcoin smashing through the $90,000 barrier and other digital assets following suit. What's fueling this surge? A mix of political shifts, regulatory whispers, and market dynamics. Let's break it down.

Why it Matters:

1. Political Winds: Donald Trump's re-election has injected fresh optimism into the crypto space. His administration's pro-crypto stance, including plans for a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, has investors buzzing.

2. Regulatory Ripples: Anticipated lighter regulations under the new administration could open doors for crypto platforms. Analysts suggest companies like Coinbase and Robinhood might benefit from a more lenient regulatory environment.

3. Market Momentum: The global crypto market capitalization has hit a record $3.2 trillion, signaling robust investor interest. Bitcoin's dominance is evident, but altcoins like Ethereum and Dogecoin are also making significant gains.

4. Institutional Influx: Major financial players are diving into crypto, with increased investments and the launch of new crypto-related products. This institutional adoption is adding legitimacy and liquidity to the market.

The Boss’s Take: “Crypto's on a tear, and everyone's got FOMO. Just remember, what goes up can come down. Keep your wits about you and maybe a parachute handy”

Quick & Dirty Trade
Swipe Right on EURO?

Got a minute? Perfect, here’s the view of the EURO this week:

• Pros: This EUR/USD long trade is dripping with potential, especially with the ECB flexing its hawkish muscles while the Fed’s starting to sound like it’s ready for a nap. November’s usually a good month for the euro too (seasonally) thank those year-end portfolio moves. Plus, the bounce off 1.0850? That’s like the market giving you a little “go for it” nod.

• Cons: The Eurozone’s economic vibe lately? Kind of like a meh playlist. And if the U.S. drops some shocker data or the Fed suddenly grows fangs, the dollar could snap back hard. Then there’s the tight stop-loss which is great for controlling risk but could easily get hit if the market wobbles.

Verdict? Swipe right if you’re into risk; swipe left if you don’t trust the EURO to make the move.

Macro Insight, Micro Impact
Episode 16 – Putin and his pet nuke’s shake the market

Plot Twist of the Week: The market ran to safe havens for a short period this week after news of Putin downgrading the threshold to use nuke’s circulated through the media. This was a timely announcement considering the U.S have allowed Ukraine to use their long range missile for strikes inside Russia.

Why This Matters:

• A lesson to learn here is not to jump on fears of Russia using nuke's, because if this were to happen (highly unlikey) the chances of us surviving is minimal...eek!

• The market is skitish on headlines, this could be a great fade strategy, those that called the bluff would have been very happy, especially those long USDJPY.

Will Donald Trump end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine? Stay tuned.

Macro Hack Of The Week
The Power of Yield Curves

When trying to predict economic cycles, don’t just watch the headlines, watch the yield curve.

Focus on the 2-Year vs. 10-Year Treasury yield spread. When it inverts (the 2-Year rate rises above the 10-Year), it’s been a reliable signal of an impending economic slowdown. Historically, this inversion precedes recessions by 6-18 months.

Why it matters for traders:

• Currency Traders: A steepening curve often signals stronger growth expectations, favoring high-yielding currencies. An inversion might push traders into safe havens like USD, JPY, or CHF.

• Equity Traders: When the curve inverts, defensive sectors like utilities or consumer staples tend to outperform.

• Bond Traders: An inverted curve is a golden opportunity to consider long positions on longer-duration bonds.

This single indicator ties into the “why” behind markets moving, helping you anticipate sentiment shifts before they hit the mainstream.

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